by Melvyn Lopez
Over a span of 40 years – 1970 to 2009 -. Dow Jones industrial index prices encountered a strong resistance at 14000 sometime October of 2008. Intense selling ensued, bringing the market down to the support level of 7500 (reflecting the levels of March of 2003) and even below. Considering that 7500 has been broken, if the trend continues, we will be looking at the Dow waddling close to the 4000 level. Is this a strong bottom or will it also give way? I hope not. “what if it does?” …then you should plan ahead on a strategy of dealing with such a reality… like keeping your investment money in cash or maybe playing the shorts.
In market analysis, analysts are divided in two camps: the fundamental analysts and the technicians. Fundamental analysis is a method of evaluating a security by attempting to measure its intrinsic value by examining related economic, financial and other qualitative and quantitative factors. Fundamental analysts attempt to study everything that can affect the security’s value, including macroeconomic factors (like the overall economy and industry conditions) and individually specific factors (like the financial condition and management of companies, even going into the nitty gritty of specific personalities on the management board).
The end goal of performing fundamental analysis is to produce a value that an investor can compare with the security’s current price in hopes of figuring out what sort of position to take with that security (underpriced = buy, overpriced = sell or short). This method of security analysis is considered to be the opposite of technical analysis.
Me, I am a privately practicing technical analyst…Technical analysts do not concern themselves with qualitative fundamentals.. they just remain as mere observers of patterns, historical prices, volume and rely on charts and technical tools. Technicians have 3 main assumptions: 1) the market price itself is the expression of all the influences to a stock price -whether fundamental or otherwise… 2)Price moves in trends which can be projected using price resistance lines and support lines 3). History repeats itself so technical chartists have a whole gallery of specific patterns which may indicate a bullish trend or bearish trend –ie, head and shoulders, inverted head and shoulders, cup and handle, double or triple ( bottom or top), ascending and descending triangles, flags, pennants, etc.
Normally, technical chartists would draw a line to connect the tops of an active graph like the Dow Jones industrial index… Connecting the tops create the RESISTANCE line… an imaginary line which seems to keep the index price below this level… while drawing a line to connect the bottoms of the graph would create the SUPPORT line… Support levels are usually below the current price, but it is not uncommon for a security to trade at or near support. Technical analysis is not an exact science and it is sometimes difficult to set exact support levels.
(Melvyn Lopez is a Database Administrator for a Japanese custodian bank based in the New York area. )



Several international organizations collaborated with CSRSME Asia in conducting the BSV Learning Journey. These included the RIPESS (International Association for the Promotion of Social and Solidarity Economy), SIDI (Society for Investment in Development Institutions), ALOE (Alliance for Responsible, Plural and Solidarity Economy), CIDA (Canadian International Development Agency), FPH (Charles Leopold Mayer Foundation), ADFIAP (Association of Development Financing Institutions in Asia and the Pacific), and Oikocredit Southeast Asia.


